Well, I gather I'm not the only one who spends a lot of time thinking about AI these days. And by think I mean panic.嗯,我想,最近花大量时间思考人工智能的人不止我一个。我说的“思考”指的是恐慌。 I'm not even worried about the doomsday scenarios because I have no way to assess those. I just think about what's going to happen to jobs, because even if we solve the AI safety problem, it's still going to displace a lot of workers, maybe including me.我甚至不担心末日景象,因为我无法评估。我只是在想工作岗位会发生什么变化,因为即使我们解决了人工智能的安全问题,它仍然会取代很多工人,也许包括我在内。 Twenty years ago, I decided to take my very expensive MBA and use it to become a journalist. That decision did not have what we MBAs like to call a "positive expected cash flow."二十年前,我决定攻读昂贵的MBA学位,并利用它成为一名记者。这个决定并没有带来我们MBA们所说的“正预期现金流”。 When I was interviewing for a job at "The Economist," one of the interviewers actually just asked me, "Why are you doing this?" I told him, "I only have so much time on this planet, and I want to spend it doing something that matters. And also, by the way, something I really, really, really love to do."我在《经济学人》面试的时候,一位面试官直接问我:“你为什么要做这份工作?” 我告诉他:“我的生命有限,我想用这段时间做一些有意义的事情。顺便说一句,也做一些我非常非常热爱的事情。” I got lucky and it worked out. Today I'm a columnist at the "Washington Post." But every day, AI seems to get better and better at writing competent prose. And I don't know what I'm supposed to do if typing words in a row stops being a semi profitable occupation.我很幸运,成功了。如今我是《华盛顿邮报》的专栏作家。但人工智能似乎每天都在写出越来越优秀的文章。如果打字不再是一项半盈利的职业,我真不知道该怎么办。 Now I'm a libertarian columnist, which means I believe in progress and creative destruction. But here’s something I also believe: The Luddites had a point.现在我是一位自由意志主义专栏作家,这意味着我相信进步和创造性破坏。但我也相信一点:卢德分子说得有道理。 Look, you don't normally hear libertarians praising Luddites, so let me explain. Today, Luddite is a broad-spectrum term for technophobes. But the Luddites weren't your mom using a landline instead of a cell phone or sending you Hallmark cards with little words underlined. They were skilled artisans who made handcrafted textiles in an era when everyone wore lovingly handcrafted textiles.听着,你通常不会听到自由主义者赞扬卢德分子,所以让我解释一下。如今,“卢德分子”是一个泛指科技恐惧者的术语。但卢德分子可不是你妈妈用座机代替手机,也不是你妈妈给你寄带有下划线小字的贺卡。他们是技艺精湛的工匠,在那个人人都穿着精心制作的手工纺织品的时代,制作手工纺织品。 Then mechanized mill owners started underpricing them using some of the most cutting-edge technology of their day, like, spinning jennies that could spin thread at record speeds. So they decided to destroy the machines.后来,机械化工厂的老板们开始压低价格,使用当时最先进的技术,比如能以创纪录的速度纺线的珍妮纺纱机。于是他们决定毁掉这些机器。 Honestly, I have some sympathy. In fact, every time one of these companies issues a new model, I get more sympathetic.说实话,我有点同情他们。事实上,每当这些公司发布新车型,我的同情心就增加一分。 We libertarians like to talk about the glories of freedom and progress, and they are glorious. But they are not free. Sometimes people get hurt. Often lots of people.我们自由意志主义者喜欢谈论自由和进步的荣耀,它们的确很荣耀。但它们并非自由。有时人们会受到伤害。通常情况下,很多人会受到伤害。 The printing press democratized knowledge and also witch burnings and wars of religion. The Industrial Revolution raised living standards and offset them with grim factory jobs, squalid urban living conditions and choking pollution. Now modern governments can allay many of those costs, but they can't give people back the life they had. And we have an obligation to count those costs. I mean, if only because no one was ever persuaded by being told "Your fears are stupid."印刷机使知识民主化,也带来了焚烧女巫和宗教战争。工业革命提高了生活水平,但也带来了残酷的工厂工作、肮脏的城市生活条件和令人窒息的污染。如今,现代政府可以减轻许多此类成本,但却无法让人们重回他们曾经的生活。我们有义务计算这些成本。我的意思是,即使没有人会因为被告知“你的恐惧是愚蠢的”而被说服。 So here's why, even after a full accounting, I think we should be willing to bear those costs and let the future unfold, because we're all the beneficiaries of previous decisions to prioritize future growth over protecting the present.因此,即使在全面核算之后,我认为我们仍然应该愿意承担这些成本,让未来自然发展,因为我们都是先前决定优先考虑未来增长而不是保护现在的受益者。